Completed Buffett demo — saved snapshot

Step 1 — Construct

Name

Promotion Focus

Scale

1–7

Definition

The degree to which language emphasizes gains, aspirations, and advancement opportunities — i.e., a promotion focus per Higgins (1997). Promotion focus is conceptually independent of prevention focus; this construct measures only the promotion dimension.

Anchors

• 1: no language of gain, aspiration, or advancement
• 4: moderate promotion focus (some gain/aspiration language)
• 7: strongly promotion-focused (pervasive gain, aspiration, advancement language)

Citations

Higgins (1997). Beyond pleasure and pain. American Psychologist, 52, 1280-1300.

Note: Prevention focus is a conceptually independent dimension and would be measured as a separate construct.

Step 2 — Corpus

20 shareholder letters from berkshirehathaway.com/letters. The descriptor (name, doc count, content checksum) is the only thing persisted server-side; document text stays in the user's browser session.

checksum: sha256:b7802eefe4a0d92d37402d553ec29a9322968d15d6941f2922c895a968128ae2

Step 3 — Traditional analysis (dictionary)

Regulatory Focus (Gamache et al. 2015). Primary measure: (promotion − prevention) / tokens — composite regulatory focus index.

Step 4 — LLM micro-inference

claude-sonnet-4-5 (claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929), temperature 0, prompt version construct-scoring@1.0. 8,006 input tokens / 1,996 output tokens across the corpus.

• brk-1977score: 5

  The text contains multiple promotion-focused phrases emphasizing gains and advancement: 'principal vehicle for long-term gain,' 'float generated...growing steadily,' and 'opportunities to deploy...capital at prices we find attractive.' While the language acknowledges modest current returns and patience, the overall emphasis is on growth prospects, capital deployment opportunities, and long-term gains, indicating a clear promotion orientation.

• brk-1981score: 2

  The document contains minimal promotion-focused language. While it mentions 'good year,' 'growth of float,' and 'attractive feature,' these are largely descriptive rather than aspirational. The dominant tone emphasizes caution ('wary'), threats ('principal threat'), and constraints ('overstate the real economic gain'), with little emphasis on gains, aspirations, or advancement opportunities.

• brk-1985score: 2

  The text focuses almost entirely on closure, deterioration, and losses rather than gains or advancement. The only forward-looking element is the implicit redeployment of capital away from textiles, but no aspirational language about growth, opportunities, or advancement is present. The dominant tone is one of regret and acknowledgment of costs, not promotion of gains.

• brk-1989score: 5

  The text contains notable promotion-focused language emphasizing gains and advancement: 'outstanding year,' 'perform splendidly,' 'compounded intrinsic value,' and 'rewarded our patience' all highlight achievement and positive outcomes. The preference for 'wonderful business' and the emphasis on value creation demonstrate aspiration toward superior performance, though the language is measured rather than pervasively aspirational.

• brk-1993score: 2

  The text contains minimal promotion-focused language. While 'book value grew' references a gain, the overall tone emphasizes caution ('more modest pace,' 'declined to add'), risk mitigation ('hedge against ignorance'), and patience rather than aspirations or advancement opportunities. The language is predominantly conservative and restraint-oriented rather than gain- or aspiration-focused.

• brk-1996score: 5

  The text contains multiple instances of promotion-focused language emphasizing gains and advancement: 'very strong year,' 'exceptional long-term results,' and the expectation that GEICO will 'produce exceptional long-term results.' The language around GEICO's acquisition and its 'low-cost structure' frames future opportunities and aspirational outcomes, though the overall excerpt is brief and includes some neutral operational content.

• brk-1999score: 2

  The text contains minimal promotion-focused language, instead emphasizing caution and restraint ('unwilling to stretch,' 'unattractive' returns). The phrase 'prefer understanding to excitement' explicitly rejects aspiration-oriented language. There is no discussion of gains, growth opportunities, or advancement goals.

• brk-2001score: 2

  The text focuses primarily on losses, errors, and decline ('largest insurance losses,' 'book value declined,' 'fault lies with us') with minimal promotion-focused language. The only forward-looking element is a commitment to 'underwriting discipline' and belief in 'long-term value,' which are defensive rather than aspirational or advancement-oriented statements.

• brk-2003score: 2

  The text contains minimal promotion-focused language. While 'record results' suggests achievement, the overall emphasis is on caution ('prudence, not prediction'), risk management ('costly and tedious' unwinding), and warnings ('weapons of mass destruction'). The language prioritizes avoiding losses and managing dangers rather than emphasizing gains, aspirations, or advancement opportunities.

• brk-2005score: 3

  The document contains minimal promotion-focused language. While it mentions 'strong year' for operating subsidiaries and 'continuing to seek large acquisitions,' the overall emphasis is on absorbing losses and managing risks rather than aspirations, gains, or advancement opportunities. The language is predominantly neutral and factual rather than aspirational.

• brk-2007score: 3

  The document contains limited promotion-focused language. While phrases like 'opportunity arises' and 'float continues to grow' suggest some forward-looking potential, the overall tone is cautious and observational rather than aspirational. The emphasis on waiting for assets 'at prices we are willing to pay' and watching consequences unfold reflects restraint rather than active pursuit of gains or advancement.

• brk-2008score: 2

  The document focuses overwhelmingly on negative outcomes ('terrible year,' 'losses,' 'declined,' 'contracted sharply') with minimal promotion-focused language. The only forward-looking statement is 'We remain confident in the long-term prospects,' which provides a single modest expression of aspiration amid predominantly loss-oriented framing. This represents minimal rather than no promotion focus.

• brk-2010score: 5

  The text contains clear promotion-focused language emphasizing gains and advancement: 'all-in bet on the long-term health,' 'operating earnings recovered sharply,' 'began to show signs of stabilization,' and 'remain confident...in the resilience.' These phrases consistently frame outcomes in terms of growth, recovery, and positive future prospects rather than loss prevention.

• brk-2012score: 5

  The text contains multiple instances of promotion-focused language emphasizing gains and advancement: 'continued progress,' 'earnings power grew again,' 'excellent results,' 'began to recover in earnest,' and 'outlook...remains extraordinarily favorable.' These phrases consistently frame outcomes in terms of growth, improvement, and positive future prospects, demonstrating a clear promotion orientation beyond moderate levels.

• brk-2014score: 3

  The document contains limited promotion-focused language. While it mentions 'success we have achieved,' 'extraordinary tailwind,' and subsidiaries earning 'sums annually that would have seemed implausible,' the overall emphasis is on reflection, continuity, and error avoidance rather than aspirations or advancement opportunities. The language is more retrospective and conservative than gain-oriented.

• brk-2016score: 5

  The text contains multiple instances of promotion-focused language emphasizing gains and advancement. Phrases like 'added a superb industrial business,' 'genuinely extraordinary management,' 'great optimism,' and especially 'productive capacity of this country...will be vastly greater in thirty years' clearly emphasize aspirations, growth, and future advancement opportunities. While not every sentence is promotion-focused, the overall orientation toward gains and positive future outcomes is strong.

• brk-2017score: 2

  The document contains minimal promotion-focused language. While it mentions 'gain' twice, the context explicitly disclaims operating accomplishment ('does not reflect any operating accomplishment') and emphasizes caution and waiting rather than advancement or aspiration. The overall tone is conservative and focused on avoiding losses ('margin of safety') rather than pursuing gains or growth opportunities.

• brk-2019score: 3

  The text contains limited promotion-focused language. While phrases like 'attractive opportunities for reinvestment' and 'ability of our operating managers to extend' competitive advantages suggest some aspiration and advancement, the overall tone is measured and restrained. The language emphasizes satisfactory performance and confidence in durability rather than strong aspirational or gain-oriented messaging.

• brk-2021score: 5

  The text contains multiple instances of promotion-focused language emphasizing gains and advancement: 'recovery,' 'record earnings,' 'most attractive long-term investment,' and 'transfer of wealth' to remaining shareholders. These phrases consistently frame outcomes in terms of gains, achievements, and opportunities for advancement, though the overall tone remains measured rather than pervasively aspirational.

• brk-2022score: 2

  The text contains minimal promotion-focused language. While 'strong results' suggests a positive outcome, the overall tone emphasizes caution ('found little at prices we liked,' 'modest' acquisition activity) and discipline rather than aspirations, gains, or advancement opportunities. The language is primarily descriptive and conservative rather than aspirational.

Triangulation — dictionary vs. LLM

Top disagreement documents

• brk-1981dict: 0.0261 · LLM: 2 · |Δz|: 2.29

  |Δz| = 2.29: dictionary score 0.0261 vs. LLM score 2. The document contains minimal promotion-focused language.

• brk-2005dict: -0.0273 · LLM: 3 · |Δz|: 1.73

  |Δz| = 1.73: dictionary score -0.0273 vs. LLM score 3. The document contains minimal promotion-focused language.

• brk-2017dict: 0.0169 · LLM: 2 · |Δz|: 1.73

  |Δz| = 1.73: dictionary score 0.0169 vs. LLM score 2. The document contains minimal promotion-focused language.

• brk-1989dict: 0.0000 · LLM: 5 · |Δz|: 1.50

  |Δz| = 1.50: dictionary score 0.0000 vs. LLM score 5. The text contains notable promotion-focused language emphasizing gains and advancement: 'outstanding year,' 'perform splendidly,' 'compounded intrinsic value,' and 'rewarded our….

• brk-1999dict: 0.0103 · LLM: 2 · |Δz|: 1.32

  |Δz| = 1.32: dictionary score 0.0103 vs. LLM score 2. The text contains minimal promotion-focused language, instead emphasizing caution and restraint ('unwilling to stretch,' 'unattractive' returns).

Step 5 — LLM macro-inference

The LLM read a stratified sample of 5 letters and proposed signals that may distinguish high-promotion from low-promotion letters.

Candidate signals

• Forward-looking compounding languagephrasal

  Letters with high promotion focus repeatedly use multi-decade compounding framing: 'the next 50 years,' 'over a lifetime of investing.'

  Operationalize: keyword: compound, compounding, decade, decades, lifetime, long term

• Acquisition-as-advancement framingsemantic

  Acquisitions are framed as enabling advancement of Berkshire's earning power rather than defensive moves.

  Operationalize: presence flag for sentences mentioning an acquisition adjacent to: opportunity, growth, future, build, expand

• Owner-builder vocabularylexical

  Words emphasizing ownership and building (build, builder, owner, partner) co-occur with high-promotion years.

  Operationalize: keyword: build, builder, owner, owners, partner, partnership

• Aspiration-conditional sentence structuresyntactic

  Conditional 'if X then Y' sentences where Y is an upside outcome are more frequent in high-promotion letters.

  Operationalize: regex over conditional clauses (out of scope for v1)

• Anniversary / milestone framingstructural

  Round-number anniversary letters (e.g., 25th, 50th) are systematically more promotion-focused than other years.

  Operationalize: presence flag for letters whose corpus year matches an anniversary milestone

Promoted features

• compounding_words
  keyword · pattern: compound, compounding, decade, decades, lifetime, long term
  mean 4.2 matches/letter; high in 1996, 2014, 2021
• owner_builder_words
  keyword · pattern: build, builder, owner, owners, partner, partnership
  mean 11.6 matches/letter; high in 1985, 1996, 2014
• anniversary_milestone
  presence · pattern: anniversary, fiftieth, twenty-fifth
  binary flag; positive for 1989 (25th), 2014 (50th)

Step 6 — Integration & combined regression

Outcome: Berkshire Class A 1-year forward log return. Synthetic outcome variable for demonstration purposes; reproducible from CRSP or Yahoo Finance.

Interpretation: OLS coefficients computed over n=20 joined per-doc rows. Dictionary-only R² = 0.013; LLM-only R² = 0.074; combined R² = 0.074. The LLM measure adds Δ R² ≈ +0.061 over the dictionary alone. Note that the bundled corpus consists of short excerpts (~110 tokens per letter) rather than full letters, and the outcome variable is an illustrative synthetic series — both choices keep this demo runnable in seconds at trivial cost. Reproduce against full letters and a real outcome panel for inferential conclusions.

Joined per-doc data

Step 7 — Reflexivity log

Auditable record of judgment calls made along the way.

• Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:52:39 GMT

  Chose unipolar promotion-focus anchors after JMS reviewer feedback; bipolar promotion/prevention conflation is theoretically inconsistent with Higgins (1997). Prevention focus, if added later, will be a separate construct.

• Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:52:39 GMT

  Used the bundled regulatory-focus dictionary from Gamache et al. (2015) AMJ Table 1 (27 promotion + 25 prevention stems, expanded to common tense variants). Primary measure: (promotion − prevention) / token count, the composite regulatory focus index. The original paper enters promotion-% and prevention-% as separate measures; switch the Primary Measure dropdown in Step 3 to a single category to match that specification.

• Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:52:39 GMT

  Single-model run with Anthropic claude-sonnet-4-5. The live tool's Step 4 supports a second model side-by-side for inter-model agreement (Pearson, ICC(2,1), per-doc disagreements); we keep this snapshot single-model to minimize reviewer-budget consumption.

• Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:52:39 GMT

  Dictionary–LLM agreement is moderate (Pearson r = 0.434, Spearman ρ = 0.602). Top disagreements concentrate where the LLM credits aspirational framing (e.g., long-term ownership language) that the sentiment-counts measure doesn't recognize.

• Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:52:39 GMT

  The bundled corpus consists of short excerpts (≈110 tokens each), so the regression in Step 6 is illustrative rather than confirmatory. Reproduce against full letters and a real CRSP outcome panel for inferential claims.

Step 8 — Reproducibility manifest

The live tool ships the same fields as a JSON manifest in the export bundle, alongside a CSV of scores, a JSONL prompt + response archive, and a Markdown methods appendix.

Prompt version

construct-scoring@1.0

Corpus checksum

sha256:b7802eefe4a0d92d37402d553ec29a9322968d15d6941f2922c895a968128ae2

llm

claude-sonnet-4-5 (claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929)

dictionary

Loughran–McDonald master dictionary (full)

seed: stratifiedSample

deterministic by document id sort

• Construct definition + scale + anchors are passed verbatim into every LLM call.
• Output schema validated server-side; max two retries on parse failure.